Prediction markets are threatening national security. Who's gonna fix it?

预测市场正威胁国家安全。谁将修复这一问题?

The Indicator from Planet Money

2026-05-12

8 分钟
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单集简介 ...

It’s the Wild West of online betting. Prediction markets have been plagued by insider trading allegations, ethical questions and even national security concerns. Today on the show, what are sites like Polymarket doing to self-police, and what other regulations might be necessary? We talk to one U.S. senator with some ideas. The Indicator has a weekly newsletter! Sign up now: npr.org/indicatornewsletter Related:  Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?  Do prediction market bettors make anything better?  Polymarket bots, lithium found: lots!, marathon shoe thoughts   For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.   See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy
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  • Prediction markets have an insider trading problem.

  • Yeah, I remember that American Special Forces soldier who was just arrested for allegedly betting on the capture

  • of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a mission he was apparently a part of.

  • I can't believe the story, but that is the world we're in these days.

  • It's mind-boggling.

  • Could have been easy money.

  • Still, prediction markets are economically useful.

  • They can provide real-time sentiment on things like inflation or the possibility of a recession.

  • And as we know from the last presidential election, they're often more accurate than political polls.

  • Good, bad or neutral, though, these markets create new problems for regulators.

  • This is The Indicator from Planet Money.