2026-05-12
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Prediction markets have an insider trading problem.
Yeah, I remember that American Special Forces soldier who was just arrested for allegedly betting on the capture
of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a mission he was apparently a part of.
I can't believe the story, but that is the world we're in these days.
It's mind-boggling.
Could have been easy money.
Still, prediction markets are economically useful.
They can provide real-time sentiment on things like inflation or the possibility of a recession.
And as we know from the last presidential election, they're often more accurate than political polls.
Good, bad or neutral, though, these markets create new problems for regulators.
This is The Indicator from Planet Money.