Bringing the House down: our American midterms model

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• 01:03

  The Economist.

• 01:14

  Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist.

• 01:16

  I’m your host, Jason Palmer.

• 01:18

  Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

• 01:29

  Describing Steve Reich as a contemporary classical composer just leaves too much unsaid.

• 01:35

  He’s been pioneering a singular kind of classical music since the 1960s.

• 01:40

  And as his 90th birthday approaches, our correspondent sits down with him.

• 01:46

  And middle children, youngest children, cover your ears.

• 01:50

  We dig into the data that suggests why it is that statistically, eldest siblings do better in life.

• 02:05

  First up, though.

• 02:14

  Here are some things you’ve been able to count on in American midterm elections

• 02:18

  since long before Donald Trump started to sow doubt in the whole process.

• 02:23

  One, attempts will be made to fiddle the maps laying out which district a particular place falls into.

• 02:29

  By convention, this is redistricting when it isn’t obviously unfair, and gerrymandering when it is.

• 02:35

  Two, there aren’t actually that many competitive districts,

• 02:38

  so the overall control of the two houses of Congress hangs on a small number of races.

• 02:43

  Three, anyone trying to start up a third party will get thumped.

• 02:48

  Four, the president’s party loses the lower chamber, the House of Representatives.

• 02:52

  Really it’s odd how consistent that trend has been.

• 02:56

  And for all the norm-breaking of Trump too, it’s pretty certain to happen again.

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