Trump and Xi will struggle to strike a major economic deal

揭秘峰会底牌

Economist

2026-05-07

11 分钟
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  • Long-suffering observers of Chinese-American relations have a plea:

  • banish the term "grand bargain".

  • might overcome their countries' rivalry to strike a major, even epochal, deal.

  • They imagined a package involving some mix of balanced trade,

  • real openings in the Chinese market and American military retrenchment in East Asia.

  • When the two leaders meet in Beijing on May 14th and 15th,

  • they will accomplish far less.

  • All going well, they will prolong their countries' tetchy trade truce—

  • and that is about it.

  • Mr Trump's mere presence in Beijing is a small victory.

  • was delayed because of the Iran war.

  • not least because it is meant to be the first of four meetings between the two men this year.

  • Such a tight schedule cannot withstand further delay.

  • The refrain from almost everyone involved is that at least they are talking.

  • One year ago they were on the brink of a mammoth trade war.

  • America had set tariffs on Chinese goods at 145%

  • and China's rare-earth export controls threatened global industry.

  • A worldwide recession loomed.

  • That danger paved the way to a truce, agreed on in October 2025.

  • Both scaled back tariffs, China resumed shipments of rare earths