Prediction Markets: All Bets Are War

预测市场:所有赌注都是战争

What A Day

2026-04-10

20 分钟
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单集简介 ...

From the moment the U.S. and Israel launched strikes in Iran at the end of February, several people have been profiting from them because of extremely well-timed bets they made on the prediction market website Polymarket. In March, Polymarket barred trades based on, “stolen confidential information.” And yet people appear to still be making trades using insider information. Just this week, a group of newly created accounts bet correctly on the U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire on April 7th. Saahil Desai, senior editor at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss how prediction markets are capitalizing on war. And in headlines, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican, humanitarian groups say the ceasefire in Gaza is failing, and a new analysis finds out just how much Democrats are saying the f-word on social media. Show Notes: Check out Saahil's work – https://tinyurl.com/4up5v7ha Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday
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单集文稿 ...

  • It's Friday, April 10th.

  • I'm Jane Koston, and this is What A Day, the show that would never buy yerba mate

  • from President Donald Trump's youngest son.

  • That 's despite news that Barron Trump is now one of five directors of a company that will soon

  • be selling the caffeinated beverage to the people who buy anything else a Trump would sell them.

  • On today's show, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican.

  • And Democrats are letting the F-bombs fly all over Twitter.

  • They swear it's a good idea.

  • But let's start with the war in Iran and how some people are making a lot of money betting on it.

  • The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the White House has forbidden staffers from betting on the war

  • in prediction markets, and for good reason.

  • From the moment the U.S.

  • And Israel launched strikes in February, quite a few people have been profiting from them.

  • That 's because they 've been placing extremely well-timed bets on the website Polymarket,

  • with some winning hundreds of thousands of dollars.

  • Here's France 24 back in March.

  • More than a dozen anonymous accounts place bets predicting that the United States

  • would strike a run by Saturday the 28th of February.

  • Most of those wages were placed in the hours before the first bombs fell,

  • and many of the accounts had been created only days earlier.