2026-04-13
6 分钟The Economist.
Hello, Mike Bird here, co-host of Money Talks, our weekly podcast on markets, the economy and business.
Welcome to Editor's Picks.
We've chosen an article from the latest edition of The Economist, which we very much hope you'll enjoy.
Throughout the war in Iran, most investors have bet that an economic catastrophe would not take place.
Oil and gas prices would need to rise to the stratosphere to destroy demand for the fuel
that flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That would cause recession and high inflation.
So commodities prices rose to painful rather than disastrous levels.
The planned reopening of the strait seems to have justified the optimism.
As we published this, stocks and bonds alike had rallied.
The S&P 500 index of stocks sat only about 3% beneath its all-time high, reached in late January.
If the ceasefire fails, the rally would be reversed,
and then some, because investors would have to price in a war that is resistant to peacemaking.
If it holds, recession will be avoided, but commodities markets will still
feel the effects of the war for months to come.
Gulf countries have cut their output of crude by 10 million barrels per day, or 10% of global supply.
It will take time to restart infrastructure and get it going full pelt, and to move tankers to the right places.
Ensuring cargos could be pricey, and Iran may try to impose new tolls, creating uncertainty even if it fails.
There is likely to be a lasting risk premium in oil prices, reflecting the chance of renewed fighting.