Hello and welcome to the Bulletin with UBS on Monocle Radio.
Each week the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in finance take you beyond the numbers and hype right to the heart of the big issues of the day.
This week we're looking ahead at the second half of 2024 and more specifically towards November's US presidential election.
What's happened in the first half of the year?
Well, equity markets have rallied with the S&P 500 gaining 15% year to date, backed by an AI driven boost to corporate profit expectations.
The gains have come despite US Inflation proving more persistent than expected, delays to interest rates and the 10 year US treasury yield rising.
While the geopolitical situation remains uncertain.
Volatility has stayed relatively low across asset classes, although gold prices have rallied.
And in the second half of the year, well, the US Will decide its next president.
AI should continue to advance rapidly and interest rates will likely be cut.
Investors will be watching how these events shift expectations for the year ahead.
Well, here to look ahead into the second half and to hopefully address some of these questions, we have a panel of the best and brightest from ubs.
Let's hear from them now.
We start with Kiran Ganesh, Managing director in the UBS cio.
Kieran, always a delight to talk to you and to get you to cast your well trained eye ahead over H2 of 24.
And of course looking to the US election.
I don't know, maybe should we start with the presidential election in November?
Obviously lots of volatility, lots of crazy events and we should caveat this by saying we're speaking on a Friday afternoon.
Even just this past weekend, things might have changed and changed significantly, but in broad brush strokes.
Give us a couple of thoughts about how investors canning investors can prepare for the election.