Why markets struggle to price in world-ending AI

为何市场难以对终结世界的AI进行定价

Editor's Picks from The Economist

2026-09-29

6 分钟
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Financial markets are starting to price in milder AI threats. But they are ill-equipped to insure against catastrophic risks. Topics covered: • Artificial intelligence • Financial markets • Existential threats Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist.
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  • Hello, Mike Bird here, co-host of Money Talks, our weekly podcast on markets, the economy and business.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • We've chosen an article from the latest edition of The Economist, which we very much hope you'll enjoy.

  • More than ever, the big questions about artificial intelligence drive the ups and downs of financial markets.

  • The bulls, who think AI will be both transformative and lucrative, stand against the sceptics,

  • who believe the promised returns will never arrive.

  • But a third sentiment is now coming to the fore for investors.

  • What if AI systems are immensely capable, as the bulls predict, but deeply dangerous?

  • Fears about misaligned AI that hacks other systems, enables fraud or misleads human engineers are growing.

  • Researchers in frontier AI labs worry that their tools could help rogue states

  • or terrorist groups build their own bioweapons.

  • Some think the models could result in human extinction, which would take the shine off any future listing.

  • It's hard to celebrate an initial public offering that leads to a terminal public offing.

  • Tyler Cowen, an economist, wishes the alarmists would put their money where their mouth is.

  • Many place high odds on a catastrophe.

  • If they are right, then intimations of doom should start affecting the markets before the cataclysm actually arrives.

  • The technophobes could therefore test their theories by making financial trades.

  • If they were successful, it would add credibility to their prophecies well in advance of the disaster

  • that would ultimately vindicate them.

  • This call for intellectual accountability is understandable.