Will China be the real winner from the Iran war?

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Insider

2026-04-03

42 分钟
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单集简介 ...

America’s war in the Gulf was supposed to crush the Iranian regime and eliminate its nuclear programme. For its backers, a successful campaign promised a secondary prize, too: damaging China by exposing its vulnerability as a major oil importer and proving American military dominance. A month into the conflict, that logic looks shaky. Chinese officials see benefits in a short Iran war, believing that America is doing itself grave harm (though an extended conflict would also start to hurt China). Are they right? Or is Beijing blind to how much it gains from the American-led world order?  Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist’s editor-in-chief, and Edward Carr, deputy editor, sit down with David Rennie, our geopolitics editor, and Adam Roberts, foreign editor, to consider these questions in the wake of Donald Trump’s address to the nation on Iran. Drawing on their insights from a week-long trip to China, Zanny asks Ed and the Insider panel what the third Gulf war means for China, Taiwan and the global balance of power.
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单集文稿 ...

  • Hi everyone, welcome back to the Insider from our studios in London.

  • I'm Zanny Minton Beddoes, the Economist's Editor-in-Chief.

  • Last night, President Trump vowed to hit Iran, in his words,

  • 'extremely hard' over the next two or three weeks.

  • In a speech at the White House, the President threatened to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure

  • if the regime didn't agree to a peace deal.

  • He also said that America was on track to meet its military objectives.

  • So, President Trump's now-typical mixed messaging.

  • A month into the fighting, and his logic seems ever more hubristic and hard to make sense of.

  • But one thing is clear, this is not the short, sharp war Mr. Trump wanted.

  • Who knows what the long-term consequences of this conflict will be for America or the world,

  • but one country, America's most formidable adversary, is looking on with great interest.

  • One of the most important questions for all of us is whether China's leaders

  • see the war as an acceleration of American decline and thus as a time for opportunity.

  • With me to discuss this are three of my colleagues

  • who have just come back from a long trip to China.

  • Ed Carr, Deputy Editor.

  • It's very nice to see you in the studio again.

  • Nice to be here.

  • David Rennie, our Geopolitics Editor and host of our sister show, Inside Geopolitics, very nice to see you.