IMF warns of global recession

国际货币基金组织警告全球性经济衰退

World Business Report

2026-04-14

8 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

In its World Economic Outlook report the International Monetary Fund says that, in a worst case scenario -  where oil, gas and food prices spike and remain high this year and next - global growth could fall below 2% in 2026. That's if the US-Israel war with Iran continues and high energy prices persist. It said the most severe conditions that could lead to a worldwide slowdown would include oil prices reaching an average $110 per barrel this year and hitting $125 in 2027. Based on these assumptions, the IMF said inflation could reach as much as 6% next year. This could force central banks to increase interest rates to slow the pace of price rises. We hear how Africa's fuel crunch continues - and hopes for a more stable future... Evergrande was once China’s biggest real estate firm, before its debt crisis sent shockwaves through the wider economy.. Today the founder of the collapsed property giant Hui Ka Yan pleaded guilty to a series of fraud charges. It's a case that marks a major moment in the fallout from the company’s collapse. And - how a gold pocket watch owned by a hero of the Sinking of the Titanic could fetch up to one hundred and thirty five thousand dollars at auction... Presenter Leanna Byrne Senior Producer: Craig Henderson
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • The world could be edging towards recession, so says the IMF.

  • It's World Business Express from the BBC World Service.

  • I'm Liana Byrne.

  • Africa's fuel crunch is deepening and China's property giant Evergrande faces a defining moment

  • as its founder pleads guilty to fraud.

  • The global economy could be pushed towards recession if conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy prices.

  • That's the latest warning from the International Monetary Fund.

  • In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF says in a worst case scenario with oil,

  • gas and food prices staying elevated, global growth could slip below 2% by next year.

  • Its chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourniquet, spoke at a press conference just a short time ago.

  • Our severe scenario assumes that energy supply disruptions extend into next year.

  • With greater macro instability.

  • Global growth falls to 2% this year and next, while inflation exceeds 6%.

  • Now, the impact of the war will be uneven.

  • Low-income energy importers are highly exposed, especially those with pre-existing vulnerabilities and limited buffers.

  • But the damage is most severe for countries in the Gulf.

  • With me now is Fiona Sincada, Senior Market Analyst at Citi Index.

  • Fiona, what you make of this is quite a stark warning.

  • Yeah, it is.

  • And I think what's interesting, though, is very much the focus on the duration of the war.