Peter Williams on Interest Rates, Term Premium, and the Importance of Inflation Expectations

彼得·威廉姆斯谈利率、期限溢价和通胀预期的重要性

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

2024-03-04

57 分钟
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Peter Williams is a managing director of macroeconomic research at 22V Research and was formerly at the IMF and the World Bank. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to provide a market perspective on interest rates, Treasury markets, and monetary policy. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the dos and don’ts of estimating term premiums, the importance and future of R-star, the usefulness of inflation expectations, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Peter's Twitter: @peterdwilliams Peter’s LinkedIn profile Peter’s 22V bio   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium* by Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams   *Reading the Stars* by Peter Williams, Yasser Abdih, and Emanuel Kopp   *Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses* by Peter Williams
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  • Welcome to Macro musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckwourth, a senior research fellow at the Mercator center at George Mason University.

  • And I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Peter Williams.

  • Peter is a managing director of macroeconomic research at 22 Volts research and formerly was at the IMF and World Bank.

  • Peter joins us today to provide a market perspective on interest rates, treasury markets, and monetary policy.

  • Peter, welcome to the show.

  • Thanks, David.

  • Great to finally be on.

  • Really nice to get to make an appearance.

  • Yes, it's great to have you on.

  • I have interacted with you for several years now on X, formally known as Twitter, and I gained a lot of wisdom from you because you're really good at modeling the macroeconomic issues.

  • I know when I had questions about term premiums or measuring our star, you were someone I could go to because you kind of knew the models in depth.

  • I mean, you knew the gory details of those models, and so you would help me better understand them myself.

  • So I'm delighted to have you on the program, that they will discuss that, some other things.

  • And this conversation is long overdue because we've been talking for a long time online.

  • Finally, I get you on the podcast.

  • So, Peter, tell us about your work, what you do and how you got there.

  • Yeah, so right now I'm managing director, sort of mostly focused on US macroeconomic and fed policy research here at 22 year research.

  • We're an independent kind of research shop, Wall street, along with, there's many other firms going to like us.