8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning

持续学习时代八大预测

Dwarkesh Podcast

2026-08-08

8 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

Read the essay here. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • So I've explained elsewhere why I think actual continual learning is needed.

  • I don't think you can have AIs that perform whole jobs as competently as humans

  • if they are forced to just write marked-on files from session to session.

  • Just to give an illustrative example, imagine if this is the way that students learn to play the saxophone.

  • So you have one student, he's never played the saxophone before, he goes into the music hall,

  • he tries to play it, of course it's his first time, so he fails.

  • And he writes down a bunch of notes about what went wrong.

  • And there's a next student who's waiting outside the music hall.

  • He comes in, he reads all these notes.

  • He's also never played, so of course he messes up.

  • And he continues to add on to these notes.

  • And you have an infinity of students who are outside the music hall who keep writing notes to the next person.

  • I don't think there's any sequence of text they could write to each other that would allow the subsequent

  • student to just nail the saxophone from the first try.

  • At some point, you actually have to accumulate the relevant experience into your brain.

  • I think the same thing will be true for a lot of skills

  • that we want AIs to actually accumulate from all the different workplaces in which they're deployed.

  • Okay, so what changes once we have actual continual learning?

  • One, I think that a lot of proposals that have been put forward about regulating AI assume

  • that you train a model and then you deploy.