IMF warns conflict could tip global economy into recession

国际货币基金组织警告称冲突可能使全球经济陷入衰退。

World Business Report

2026-04-15

26 分钟
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With the Global recession warning from the International Monetary Fund, Andrew Peach looks at rising oil, gas and food prices, and how they could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Also, European airlines call for emergency support as the conflict disrupts aviation. And we ask whether America’s tipping culture improves service or simply keeps wages low. (Photo: People walk in front of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) HQ2 building in Washington, DC, USA, 13 April 2026. Credit: SHAWN THEW/EPA/Shutterstock)
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  • Global recession warning from the IMF.

  • Low-income energy importers are highly exposed.

  • We are in a situation where this is going to be extremely tough.

  • Some pretty sort of dour noise and forecasts really coming from those inside the building behind me.

  • It's World Business Report from the BBC World Service.

  • This is Andrew Peach.

  • On the way, we 'll look at rising oil, gas and food prices

  • and how they could force central banks to increase interest rates.

  • Also today, how Amazon is taking on SpaceX to deliver satellite connectivity to smartphones.

  • And if you've ever been confused by tipping in the United States, we'll get the rules from a barman in Milwaukee.

  • First, the global economy could be pushed towards recession if the conflict in the Middle East

  • continues to drive up energy prices.

  • That's the warning from the International Monetary Fund.

  • At its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF is saying in the worst case scenario with oil,

  • gas and food staying elevated, global growth could slip by 2% next year.

  • Its chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gorincha, spoke at a news conference.

  • Our severe scenario assumes that energy supply disruptions.

  • Extend into next year with greater macro instability.

  • Global growth falls to 2% this year and next, while inflation exceeds 6%.

  • Now, the impact of the war will be uneven.