2026-03-14
2 小时 30 分钟All right, this is the episode of My Roommate Teaches Me Semiconductors.
It's also the send-off for this current set.
Yeah, you know, after you use it, I'm like, I can't use this again.
I gotta get out of here.
No sloppy seconds for DoorCash.
Okay, Dylan is the CEO of SemiAnalysis.
Dylan, the burning question I have for you, if you add up the big four,
Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, they're combined...
forecasted capex that you published recently this year is 600 billion dollars and given uh you know yearly prices of renting that compute that would be like close to 50 gigawatts now obviously we're not putting on 50 gigawatts this year so presumably that's paying
for compute that is going to be coming online over the coming years so i have a question about what how to think about the timeline around when that capex comes online similar question for the labs where you know OpenAI just announced that they raised $110 billion.
Anthropic just announced they raised $30 billion.
And if you look at the compute that they have coming online this year,
you should tell me how much it is,
but like, isn't it another four gigawatts total that they'll have this year?
It feels like the cost to rent the compute that OpenAI and Anthropic will have this year to like sustain their compute spend at,
you know, $10, $13 billion a gigawatt.
Those individual raises alone are like enough to cover their compute spend for the year.
And then this is not even including the revenue that they're going to earn this year.
So help me understand first,
when is the timescale at which the big tech CapEx is actually coming online?