Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.
The episode you are about to hear was originally published in 2019.
We were inspired to play it again now as a way to think about what's going on in Ukraine.
It is by now well established that when Vladimir Putin chose to invade Ukraine after a long buildup and warnings from the US and many others that he was expecting a quick and simple victory.
Whatever happens next, it's clear that the invasion has turned out to be more difficult than he expected.
Which got us to wondering, has Putin changed his mind about the wisdom of his plan?
If he had it to do over, would he choose a different course?
And now that hes facing a potential quagmire, is there a way for him to extricate Russia without losing face?
The following episode is called how to change your mind.
Even though we gave it that chipper title, the reality is that changing your mind, especially in public, can be very costly, especially for a politician, and even more so for an autocrat.
What's the point of being an autocrat if you ever have to admit you were wrong?
But this isn't just about autocrats.
For instance, I'd love to know what Barack Obama would think if you listened back today to this tape, cut from a 2012 presidential debate with Mitt Romney.
Governor Romney, I'm glad that you recognize that al Qaeda is a threat, because a few months ago, when you were asked what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not al Qaeda.
You said Russia.
And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the cold war has been over for 20 years.
Would Barack Obama, if he were on our show today, would he say he has since changed his mind?
That perhaps Romney had a point about Russia?
Four years before that debate, Obama won the democratic nomination in part because of another quagmire, american invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Obama, then an Illinois state senator, had been firmly against that war.